Jesus was using the direct quote from Zechariah to prophecy the situation that would occur with His followers at His capture by the Jews and execution by the Romans. The principle He was describing is simply when the leader of a movement is removed the followers generally will abandon the leader’s philosophy. This concept is well known in warfare. The prevailing army will remove the king and without a leader the king’s forces will usually soon sue for peace. Jesus’ illustration was a shepherd and his sheep. When the shepherd is gone the sheep have to guidance to direct their daily events and they scatter in fear. Here, the situation was prophecied which stated that I, (God The Father speaking), will strike (or put to death) the Shepherd (Jesus) and the sheep (The Disciples) will be scattered in all directions. They would soon deny any association with Him through desertion while denying any loyalty to Him for a while.
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